Betting on Bitcoin Upgrades: A Smart Contract Wager on OP_CAT Activation

In practice, standardness rule has SCRIPT_VERIFY_DISCOURAGE_OP_SUCCESS, which would make any script containing OP_SUCCESSx fail immediately, instead of succeeding.

So the above scheme works, assuming no miner colludes with Bob by turning off SCRIPT_VERIFY_DISCOURAGE_OP_SUCCESS. Updated the original article.