# Mempool Based Fee Estimation on Bitcoin Core

**URL:** <https://delvingbitcoin.org/t/mempool-based-fee-estimation-on-bitcoin-core/703>\
**Category:** Implementation\
**Created:** [March 21, 2024, 2:45pm UTC](https://delvingbitcoin.org/t/mempool-based-fee-estimation-on-bitcoin-core/703 "2024-03-21T14:45:23Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 1\
**Showing post:** 8

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**Author:** ![ismaelsadeeq](https://delvingbitcoin.org/user_avatar/delvingbitcoin.org/ismaelsadeeq/32/151_2.png) [@ismaelsadeeq](https://delvingbitcoin.org/u/ismaelsadeeq)\
**Post date:** [April 1, 2024, 8:35pm UTC](https://delvingbitcoin.org/t/mempool-based-fee-estimation-on-bitcoin-core/703/8 "2024-04-01T20:35:50Z")

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I’ve updated to a format that is more interesting to look at. Thanks to additional data from @ClaraShk , I’ve filled between the 5th percentile fee rate to the 75th percentile fee rate.

 ![fee_estimates](https://delvingbitcoin.org/uploads/default/original/1X/9b921b8be14c042b88ac43f7659cb71e838c55e3.png)

Overall, based on my observations, using the threshold is not as much of an underestimation as I thought it would be. For most cases, estimates fall within the target block fee rate 5th percentile to 75th percentile range.

And I also calculated the summary of my observation:

Total of `19,154` estimates were made from `2024-02-28 01:57:56` to `2024-03-12 13:23:05` (Block `832330` to Block `834362`)

* * *

`CBlockPolicyEstimator::estimatesmartfee` (`economic` mode) with confirmation target 1

- `5,643` estimates overpaid, accounting for `29.46%` of the total estimates
- `2,114` estimates underpaid, accounting for `11.04%` of the total estimates
- `11,397` estimates fall within the range, accounting for `59.50%` of the total estimates

* * *

Mempool based estimate for next block (Without Threshold)

- `10` estimates overpaid, constituting `0.05%` of the total estimates
- `3,637` estimates underpaid, constituting `18.99%` of the total estimates
- `15,507` estimates fall within the range, constituting `80.96%` of the total estimates

Mempool estimate for next block (With threshold of `CBlockPolicyEstimator::estimatesmartfee` (`economic` mode) confirmation target 1)

- `6` estimates overpaid, constituting `0.03%` of the total estimates
- `5,070` estimates underpaid, constituting `26.47%` of the total estimates
- `14,078` estimates fall within the range, constituting `73.50%` of the total estimates

Using `5th` percentile as the low end and `75th` Percentile as the high end.

You can view it on Collab and edit the block ranges; it has a range threshold of `200` blocks:

> **[Google Colaboratory](https://colab.research.google.com/drive/1lhMzWa-AUkJne6ErM_HWuqGniHtDZndA?usp=sharing)**

Or run the notebook from the repository [GitHub - ismaelsadeeq/fee-estimates-analysis](https://github.com/ismaelsadeeq/fee-estimates-analysis) and run the notebook.

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_[View the full topic](https://delvingbitcoin.org/t/mempool-based-fee-estimation-on-bitcoin-core/703)._