There are various points in this that I wouldn’t agree with, but most importantly, if the model was good at describing reality, then what we should be seeing is that long-term users would agree on consensus change, but progress isn’t made because newer participants to the space block it.
In my opinion, this is not at all what’s happening these days - the disagreement, in particular regarding which covenant softfork to activate (if any) doesn’t seem to be related at all to the time the relevant parties entered the space.