I’m still trying to understand whether the difficulty decrease compounds. Take the following (same MTP simplification as above):
- Period 0: [0, 0, 0, …, 0, 0, P].
- Period 1: [P-G, P-G, …, P-G, 2P].
- Period 2: [2P-G, …, 3P].
- Period 3: [3P-G, …, 4P],
- …
- Period k: [kP-G, …, (1+k)P].
So each period is stretched by G, causing the difficulty to drop every time. For G = 2 hours, this would be 0.6% per retarget period. That translates to about 15% per year.
Note that any difficulty decrease accumulation can be reset by an honest miner finding the last block of any retarget period.